Incorporating climate change impacts into demand forecasting: a guidebook for practitioners

As climate change continues to alter water availability and consumption patterns, utilities are being called to rethink how they plan for the future. Recognizing this growing challenge, the American Water Works Association (AWWA), in collaboration with Carollo Engineers and a team of expert volunteers, has published a free, practical resource: Incorporating Climate Change Impacts Into Demand Forecasting – A Guidebook for Practitioners.

Why Demand Forecasting Needs to Evolve

Historically, utilities have based demand forecasts on factors like population growth, land use, and historical water use. But with more intense droughts, extreme precipitation events, and shifting seasonal patterns, the assumptions of the past may no longer hold true. As the guidebook explains, “utilities must anticipate changes to the [urban water] cycle and be prepared to provide reliable service in the face of uncertain conditions.”

Outdoor irrigation, cooling needs, evaporation, and water-intensive commercial operations are all expected to be impacted by rising temperatures. These changes can, in turn, affect everything from infrastructure sizing and source water development to operational planning and financial forecasting.

Planning for a Changing Climate: A Resource for Utilities of All Sizes

The guidebook presents a spectrum of approaches for incorporating climate change into demand forecasting, from straightforward scenario planning to advanced modeling using downscaled climate projections. It also includes real-world case studies that illustrate how different utilities have begun to adapt their demand forecasts in response to climate-related pressures.

Whether your utility is just beginning to explore climate-informed planning or is already integrating complex climate models into operations, this resource offers valuable insights. One of the guidebook’s key strengths is its emphasis on practical application. It not only breaks down complex climate data but also helps utilities frame these insights within the broader context of long-term water supply sustainability.

Supporting Resilient, Forward-Looking Utilities

This guidebook empowers utilities to take proactive steps toward greater resilience by combining climate science with established demand forecasting methods. It’s not just about responding to climate change; it’s about preparing for it in a way that supports reliable service delivery, resource efficiency, and community trust.

Download AWWA’s free guidebook and start exploring how your utility can integrate climate impacts into demand planning today.